Day 93: Profit Dip Analysis & Scaling Priorities

Welcome to Day 93 and the first deep-dive analysis episode of this new month.

We’ve officially completed three months of continuous funnel testing, ad optimisation, launches, split tests, and spend adjustments — which means today begins a structured breakdown of the big picture.

Yesterday ended at $550 in sales and, after $560 in ad spend, resulted in a small $16 loss.

Not ideal, but still very much part of Black Friday and Cyber Monday chaos.

Today, by midday, sales were already at $863, so we’re looking at a potential solid recovery day.

Now it’s time to zoom out. Today’s video looks at macro-level metrics over September, October, and November to see what direction we’re heading and where profit has moved relative to sales.

Spoiler: the trend lines show revenue and profit drifting apart, and that gap needs to close in Month 4.

We now have three months of data, meaning we can finally track trends rather than reacting to individual days.

Tomorrow and the following day will go granular: funnel breakdowns, upsell performance, AOV movement, ad creative analysis, and learning phase impact.

What You’ll See

• Completed 90-day milestone

• Yesterday’s $16 loss and today’s midday rebound to $863

• Target tracking: revenue vs. profit percentages relative to 25% mark

• Sales vs. profit trend line showing divergence

• Impact of November’s second funnel launch on profitability

• Riffs funnel steady in customer volume (339 vs. 340 last month)

• Front-end revenue drop month-to-month

• Second funnel showing -$283 loss in November

• Higher AOV on the new beginner funnel ($51 vs. $40)

• CPA spike on beginner funnel due to no upsells/order bump early on

• Order bump + upsell implementation mid-month

• Video ad format gaining traction

• Carousel ad barely receiving delivery

• Strategy for fixing carousel (video lead slide)

• Plans for next two days of detailed deep-dives

Strategy Breakdown

This month’s biggest insight wasn’t performance — it was structure.

1. Profit vs. Revenue Reality

Revenue tracking is slightly ahead of pace (just above 25%), but profit is lagging significantly (around 20%). That 5-point gap matters because ultimately profit is the target that pays for scale, new creatives, testing, and personal income.

If the percentage gap widens, growth stalls. December must tighten that spread.

2. The Second Funnel Hit

Launching a new funnel in November created:

• Ad cost without immediate backend value

• High CPA early (around $75)

• Lower conversion volume while building assets

That -$283 loss in November is effectively the cost of acquiring data.

There’s nothing unusual here — new funnels rarely start profitable — but it does distort the month-to-month graph in a way that looks like total underperformance.

3. Learning Phase Finally Completed

The beginner funnel has exited learning, meaning:

• More stable CPM

• Better optimization window

• Budgets can scale without reset

This is a huge structural win going into December.

4. Creative Insights

Here’s the clear hierarchy:

• Static packshot = dominates purchases

• 15-sec video = strong CTR and volume

• 1-minute video = good for retargeting

• Carousel = currently failing to get impressions

The problem isn’t the carousel concept — it’s distribution.

Fix: Lead with a video slide to force algorithm placement priority.

5. December Objective

Month 4 priorities are simple:

• Scale the beginner funnel only if CPM improves

• Shoot multiple versioned video ads

• Reinforce the packshot as primary conversion asset

• Monitor CPA + AOV daily until predictable

The split testing strategy has created meaningful learnings — now it’s time to stabilise winners, not just experiment.

Focus

Today’s focus is on understanding macro-trends:

• Sales vs. profit divergence

• Customer value trend and AOV direction

• Testing costs vs. established funnel stability

The test-heavy approach in November was necessary, but December must shift toward optimisation and scaling, not exploration.

Insight

It’s easy to get misled by good days and bad days, especially during seasonal ad volatility. But real funnel decisions are based on 90-day data, not 24-hour noise.

The most important number today isn't revenue or profit — it’s trend direction.

• AOV is improving.

• CPA on the second funnel should drop post-learning phase.

• Packshot creative is winning.

• The beginner market may surge in January.

Today’s big takeaway: the foundation is built — now the structure needs refining.

December will either repair the profit gap or confirm that more major changes are needed.

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Follow my daily journey to $240K as I build, test, and scale profitable funnels.

If you would like to learn how to create powerful Facebook Ads, check out my Course: https://www.jonathanhowkins.com/the-course

And if you're looking for a platform to build your sales funnel, the one I use and recommend is Systeme.io. You can set up and start making sales with their free account:

https://systeme.io/?sa=sa005182666557b5ccf999dfc8d9877207dc47da35

And you can ask questions and get support in my Facebook Group here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/coursecreatorads