Day 92: Month 4 and Preparing a 90-Day Funnel Breakdown

It’s the first day of December and Day 92 of this journey, which means three full months of testing, scaling, building, and adjusting are officially complete.

Starting tomorrow, I’ll begin a multi-day deep dive into the big picture: not just daily numbers, but trends across the entire 90-day window.

We’ll look at what’s driving revenue, where profit is strongest, and which experiments have made a real difference.

The past two days are classic examples of Black Friday volatility.

Yesterday came in at $550 in revenue, and after ad spend we finished the day down by roughly $20.

Not a result I’m aiming for, but during peak auction pressure weeks it’s something I have to accept.

Today rebounded to $741 in sales, though Facebook overspent my budget by around 30%, which is frustrating but common during this season.

Ad spend landed at $471 (£356), converting to about $622, leaving a profit of $241. It’s lower margin territory, but still positive.

Right now, I’ve pulled spend back slightly across both funnels to minimise risk, and I’m mostly trying to survive this strange patch in the ad auction without losing momentum.

The danger with shutting everything off during holiday periods is that the algorithm needs to “relearn” when spend restarts.

So even if short-term profitability dips, staying active means collecting data, training delivery patterns, and maintaining visibility ahead of the post-holiday reset.

Tonight, at around 8:45 p.m., we were sitting at $493 for the day. I’ll be happy to close today with even a couple hundred dollars in profit.

The real work begins tomorrow when I start breaking down the first quarter of the challenge with proper metrics: ad spend, AOV, CTR, CPM, conversion rates, funnel splits, and creative tests.

That multi-day review will shape the direction for December, January, and beyond.

What You’ll See

• Three months of the 240k challenge completed
• Yesterday’s low $550 revenue and -$20 loss
• Today’s rebound to $741 in revenue
• Facebook overspending 30% above daily budget
• $241 profit today after pulling budgets back
• Early evening revenue at $493
• Reduced spend across campaigns to manage auction volatility
• Plan to retain momentum rather than shutting ads down
• Full 90-day analysis planned for the coming week
• Metrics to be reviewed: AOV, CTR, CPM, conversion rates, funnel trend lines
• Goal of shaping December and January strategy based on 90-day performance.

Strategy Breakdown

We’re at a natural transition point—moving from day-to-day firefighting toward structured review.

The entire month of November has been dominated by auction spikes from Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

When large e-commerce advertisers flood the platform, CPM increases and Facebook begins allocating impressions toward higher bidding competitors.

The effect is inconsistent conversion quality, unpredictable spending behaviour, and lower ROAS.

Rather than forcing performance, I’ve taken a measured approach by trimming budgets just enough to protect profitability, but not enough to cause reset risk.

Pulling spend entirely during holiday surges may improve short-term margins, but it harms long-term optimisation.

Meta thrives on continuous data feedback.

Ending delivery leads to an uphill battle when restarting.

The bigger priority now is preparation for next week’s analysis. For the first time, I’ll have 90 full days of data to compare funnel against funnel. This includes:

• Revenue distribution between the Riffs funnel and the beginner funnel
• AOV stability across multiple months
• Creative effectiveness (static, video, carousel, hook angles)
• Frequency and performance of scaling attempts
• The impact of exiting learning on CPM and ROAS

Because December historically softens for “learn something new” markets, there’s a strategic window ahead.

If CPM stabilises after holiday spikes, the new funnel could be in a strong position to scale into January—a month where the guitar learning market tends to surge with new-year goals.

Focus

My focus today is maintaining momentum through the final days of Black Friday volatility and preparing the structure for next week’s full 90-day funnel breakdown.

Insight

Zooming out matters.

Daily ads performance can be chaotic, especially during auction-heavy holiday weeks, but patterns only emerge when looking at multi-week and multi-month data.

The next level of growth comes from understanding not just which days were profitable, but why.

You scale what works, fix what’s weak, and ignore random fluctuations when the bigger picture is heading in the right direction.

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Follow my daily journey to $240K as I build, test, and scale profitable funnels.

If you would like to learn how to create powerful Facebook Ads, check out my Course: https://www.jonathanhowkins.com/the-course

And if you're looking for a platform to build your sales funnel, the one I use and recommend is Systeme.io. You can set up and start making sales with their free account:

https://systeme.io/?sa=sa005182666557b5ccf999dfc8d9877207dc47da35

And you can ask questions and get support in my Facebook Group here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/coursecreatorads