Day 86: Holding Steady Through Black Friday Spikes

Today is the 25th of November, Day 86, and we’re now right on the edge of Black Friday—the most chaotic advertising week of the year.

Yesterday I scaled back some ad spend to avoid overspending in conditions where results were getting shaky.

The graph showed exactly what I expected: a drop in sales, a short uptick, and then another softening today as auction pressure intensifies.

Because Meta ads operate entirely on an auction model, this week is always difficult.

Big brands push huge budgets, flood the feed, and outbid smaller advertisers like me.

They also overlap into broader audience segments, squeezing the inventory available for everyone else.

Sometimes, rather than forcing spend through an inflated auction, the smartest move is simply to pull back, protect profitability, and wait for the market to settle.

Yesterday’s total ad spend came to £402 (about $543), leaving a profit of $199. It’s perfectly acceptable for a Black Friday week, but nowhere near the doubling-of-spend ratio I target long-term.

Still, the business generated steady sales, and the beginner funnel continues to show signs of life—even if its CPMs remain stubbornly high.

The retargeting campaign connected to video views remains completely broken, delivering no reach despite multiple resets.

At this point, I may simply scrap it and redirect the £3/day into the main funnel setup.

The video ad inside the new funnel is still taking most of the budget, which makes sense given the high engagement.

But the CPMs remain elevated, and the campaign is still in learning—though with around 30 purchases in less than a week, we’re edging close to exiting that phase.

Today sits at $400 so far at mid-afternoon, and while it likely won’t be a big day, I’m content to hold steady and stay focused on what matters in this environment.

What You’ll See

• The impact of Black Friday auction pressure on performance
• Why reducing ad spend made sense in a volatile market
• £402 ($543) in spend and $199 profit for the day
• Explanation of auction dynamics and why big brands dominate
• Retargeting campaign still stuck at zero impressions
• Attempts to reboot or duplicate the retargeting setup
• Engagement campaign slowly gathering video views at £3/day
• New funnel CPM still high and locked in learning phase
• Around 30 purchases so far in the new funnel’s first few days
• Video ad receiving most of the spend due to strong CTR
• Plan to produce more videos and refine carousel creative
• Goals for pushing the new funnel out of the learning phase

Strategy Breakdown

The key challenge today is the ongoing volatility caused by Black Friday traffic.

Meta’s auction model rewards the highest bidders first, and large brands are putting massive amounts of money into campaigns right now.

Even if their targeting is broad, their budgets are so high that they end up overlapping with my beginner and guitar-interested audiences.

That means impressions get diverted away from my ads, CPM rises, and conversion quality often dips.

This is precisely why it can be wise to reduce spend temporarily rather than fight an uphill battle.

On the structural side, my budget adjustments from earlier in the week are still holding. I didn’t scale anything further today, because the goal right now is stability.

The second funnel remains the focus, and the more important objective is getting it out of the learning phase.

With roughly 30 purchases within a few days, we’re on track—but not there yet.

Once it hits 30–50 conversions within a 7-day window, Meta should shift the campaign into “active,” which is where CPMs often drop and performance becomes more consistent.

A reduction from £22 CPM toward even half of that number would dramatically improve overall profitability.

The video-view retargeting campaign continues to fail, producing no impressions even after duplication and toggling.

That suggests something misaligned in the setup—possibly audience size, optimisation event, or a delivery conflict.

Realistically, the opportunity cost of troubleshooting a £3/day test isn’t worth it during Black Friday week.

The smarter move may be turning it off and reallocating the spend to the beginner funnel where it can contribute to pushing toward that 30–50 conversion threshold.

Inside the new funnel, the video ad continues to receive most of the delivery.

Given its high engagement and scroll-stopping capability, Meta is using it as a top-of-funnel entry point and then rotating static creatives afterward to drive conversions.

This aligns with modern Meta behaviour: leading with broad appeal, then retargeting (internally within the ad set) using more direct-response ads.

The pack shot ad remains the second-highest spender and continues to play the role of the primary conversion asset.

The missing piece is creative volume.

To maximise performance once the learning phase ends, I’ll need more videos, a stronger carousel, and expanded variations.

Producing those is the priority for this week.

More creatives mean more rotation, more angles for Meta to test, and stronger resilience during competitive periods like this.

Focus

My focus is on stabilising ad spend during Black Friday volatility while pushing the new funnel to exit the learning phase and expanding the creative library with more video and an improved carousel.

Insight

Black Friday always exposes the limits of brute-force spending.

When CPMs skyrocket, forcing budget through the system can actually hurt performance, not help it.

Winning in weeks like this requires restraint, patience, and a willingness to sit out the worst of the auction pressure.

At the same time, it’s a chance to examine your funnel’s true strength. If a campaign can maintain steady sales even in this environment, it has real long-term potential.

The goal isn’t to win Black Friday—it’s to position the funnel to explode once the market resets.

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