Day 46 – Calling the Upsell Test and Launching the Big One: Story vs. Statement.
Follow my daily journey to $240K as I build, test, and scale profitable funnels.
When Data Says “Stop” and Curiosity Says “Go”
It’s Thursday, October 16th — Day 46 of the challenge, and today’s update is all about closing one test and launching another.
But before we dive into the split-test talk, let’s get the daily pulse check.
Daily Numbers Recap
💰 Sales (Yesterday): $450
💸 Ad Spend: £345 (≈ $464)
📉 Profit: –$14
Ouch. One of my lowest days in the last month and a half.
But before despair sets in — the pendulum swings fast. As of midday today, sales are already sitting at $707, and we could easily close around $1,000 by the end of the day.
That’s the nature of this game: a constant rollercoaster. Some days sting, but you’ve got to zoom out and look at the weekly and monthly picture to stay sane.
Wrapping Up the Upsell Split Test
Before I could launch my new landing page experiment (the Caples-inspired story version I shared in Day 45), I needed to close off the upsell split test that’s been running for two weeks.
Here’s what the data showed:
🎯 Control Page: 11% conversion
🧪 Test Version: 7% conversion
📊 Views: ~100 (96 exactly)
So, while the sample size isn’t huge, that 30% gap is pretty decisive. Even with a bit more traffic, it’s unlikely the new variant would close that distance enough to be competitive.
That means… Control wins again.
Not the result I hoped for — but that’s testing.
And honestly, it tells me something good: my control pages are strong. The baseline is solid, which means any win from here will be hard-earned but meaningful.
Launching the New Headline Split Test
With the upsell test closed, I finally got to launch the one I’ve been itching to start — the main offer page split test based on the 1927 John Caples-inspired story.
The test setup looks like this:
Control (A): “Finally, a guitar method designed for the over 50s.”
Speaks broadly, positions the offer to the demographic.
Variant (B): “My grandson laughed when I said I’d learn his favorite riffs…”
Personal story, emotional hook, curiosity-driven headline.
Both versions share identical design, colors, and layout. The only thing that changes is the copy — because I want clean data.
The idea is simple:
👉 Does emotion and storytelling outperform clarity and positioning?
Early Outlook and Next Steps
Because this is my front-end offer, I typically get 15–20 sales per day, so we should see early signals by the end of the weekend.
If the story version beats the control, I’ll then:
Test design variations (same copy, different layout).
Translate the winning narrative into new ad creative for coherence.
If it doesn’t beat the control — no problem. I’ll have learned more about my audience’s psychology and how far I can push emotional storytelling before clarity starts to drop off.
Testing never really fails; it just teaches.
Side Note: The Carousel Ad Optimization
I also noticed something with my new carousel ad variant — I didn’t fully optimize it for different Facebook placements (feed, Reels, right column, etc.). That means it might not be displaying properly across all surfaces.
So, tomorrow’s task is to go back and tweak creative dimensions and copy for placement fit.
Even small adjustments there can lead to better CTR and CPM efficiency.
Looking Ahead
Next few days will focus on three fronts:
Tracking the new landing page split test.
Adjusting carousel creatives for multi-placement optimization.
Reflecting on the month’s overall volatility — what’s really driving the swings and how to smooth them out going forward.
Key Takeaways
✅ Closed off upsell split test — control page wins with 11% vs. 7%.
✅ Launched new Caples-inspired landing page test — story vs. statement.
✅ Focused purely on copy difference, keeping layout identical for accuracy.
✅ Carousel ad needs optimization for placement types.
✅ Remember: no test is wasted — each one strengthens your control baseline.
jonathanhowkins.com
I want to help Course Creators succeed in predictably and profitably generating more leads and sales using Facebook Advertising.