Day 261: Geographic Expansion, A\/B Test Results.

Sometimes expanding into new geographic markets throws up surprises — and this week's data did exactly that, while a 1,500-visit A/B test finally delivered a clear winner.

- Australia outperformed with 19 purchases at a low cost per purchase — the strongest new market tested.

- The UK underperformed — twice the cost per purchase with fewer sales than the US or Australia.

- The A/B test needed 138 sales to reach a reliable conclusion — a reminder not to call tests too early.

- Upsell conversion is the next big lever — currently at 7–9%, and the new messaging approach could move that significantly.

Where We Are on Day 261

It's Wednesday 20th May, and we're on Day 261 of this 365-day journey to $240K in online course sales. That leaves just over 100 days to close the gap.

The current total stands at $186,846 — meaning we still need to find roughly $60,000 across June, July, and the remaining days of May. It's a genuine challenge, and it's sharpening the focus on what will actually move the needle.

Geographic Expansion: What the Data Shows

Over the last week or so, I added Australia and New Zealand as new geographic targets alongside the existing US, UK, and European markets. The results were illuminating.

Australia came out on top — 19 purchases at a low cost per purchase, making it comfortably profitable. New Zealand returned just one purchase at roughly twice the cost.

The UK was similarly expensive with fewer sales, making it the weakest performer of the core English-speaking markets right now.

US vs UK: A Clear Performance Gap

The US continues to be a solid, reliable market. When the cost per purchase sits around the £15 mark, it's profitable. At £22, the margins compress quickly.

The UK, by contrast, is delivering higher costs and lower volume — which makes it hard to justify heavy spend there at this stage. It's not written off, but it's not where the budget is going right now.

Last 7 Days: The Numbers

Here's a snapshot of performance from 14th to 20th May:

- Sales: $2,974

- Ad Spend: $1,114.12

- Net Ad Costs: approximately $1,898

- Estimated Profit: ~$1,000

- Profit Margin: approximately 33%

A 33% margin is decent, but there's clear room to improve — and that improvement is going to come from optimising what happens after the initial sale.

The A/B Split Test: What We Tested

Over the last 10 days or so, I've been running a split test on the main landing page.

The control page has the riff list positioned lower down, after some scene-setting content.

The variation brings the actual riff list higher up the page and adds a stronger emotional hook — essentially: imagine being able to play these riffs in the next 30 minutes.

It's a subtle reordering of existing content rather than a full redesign, which is exactly the kind of incremental test worth running at this stage of funnel optimisation.

Why You Shouldn't Call Tests Too Early

This test taught me something important about patience. In the first 500 visits, the control was winning. By 1,000 visits, the picture had changed. By 1,500 visits and 138 sales, the variation had pulled ahead by a small but meaningful margin.

The lesson here is clear: page views alone are not enough to call a test. You need a meaningful number of actual sales to flow through — and 100 sales seems to be a reasonable minimum threshold before drawing conclusions.

The Winning Variation and What's Next for the Landing Page

The new variation — with the emotional hook and riff list moved higher — won the test. The margin wasn't enormous, but it was consistent enough to be credible at 138 sales.

Now that we have a new control, the question is what to test next on the landing page. But honestly, I'm starting to think the landing page has less untapped potential than the upsell page — so that's where the focus is shifting.

The Upsell Opportunity: Carrying the Message Through

Here's the insight that landed on me mid-video: the teaching method that makes the front-end offer compelling is actually the same method that underpins the entire course range. But the upsell page was built without that structure in mind — so the messaging has always felt disconnected.

If I can carry this method-led message through to the upsell page, it might be the congruency link I've been missing. The upsell conversion rate is currently sitting at 7–9% — there's real scope to push that higher, and better message alignment could be the way to do it.

The Road to $240K: What's Left to Focus On

With 10 days left in May and three months overall to close a $60,000 gap, the priorities are becoming clearer.

The landing page is largely optimised — the gains there will be incremental.

The real leverage points now are the upsell page, the ad strategy, and email marketing (which, by my own admission, still needs serious attention).

The funnel is maturing, and that means the work shifts from big structural changes to smarter, more targeted optimisation. Every percentage point on the upsell conversion rate matters more now than it did at the start.Closing Reflection

Day 261 feels like a turning point in terms of focus. The geographic expansion has given us useful data quickly, the split test has been validated properly, and there's now a clear hypothesis to test on the upsell page.

The $240K target is a stretch from here, but the path to getting closer is becoming more defined — and that's what this journey is all about.

Resources & Next Steps

Free Top 10 Split-Tests: https://www.jonathanhowkins.com/split-testing

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