Day 206: Why Our Facebook Ad Performance Has Collapsed.

Sometimes the numbers hit you like a cold shower — and today's week-on-week comparison between January and March is exactly that kind of moment.

With spend almost identical across both periods, our results have changed dramatically, and it's time to face it head-on and build a plan.

Key Takeaways

- Purchases dropped by nearly 40%: 92 purchases last week vs 156 in the same week in January.

- Cost per purchase almost doubled: Up from £18 to £30, meaning we're paying far more for each sale.

- Click-through rates halved: Down from 2.44% to 1.3%, a clear sign the ads are losing their pull.

- Organic is a bright spot: YouTube leads nearly doubled, from 5 to almost double that, with traffic up from 242 to 441 sessions.

What Prompted This Review

Over the last month or so, I've been heavily focused on another project, which meant the ads and funnel were essentially running on autopilot. That's fine for a short period, but neglect it long enough and things start to fall apart — and that's exactly what's happened here.

Two recent days told the story clearly: one day at £514 in sales, one at £734, against combined ad spend of £979. That's roughly £200 profit over two days — nowhere near where we need to be to hit our targets.

The January vs March Comparison

Using the Facebook Ads Manager comparison tool, I looked at March 19th–25th versus January 20th–26th. The ad spend across both periods was almost identical — just £22 apart — so we're genuinely comparing like for like.

What we found is a clear and concerning picture across every meaningful metric.

The Purchase Drop Is Significant

In January, we recorded 156 purchases in that seven-day window. Last week, that figure was just 92. That's 64 fewer sales — a drop of roughly 40–50% — with almost the same spend going out the door.

When you combine that with the change in cost per purchase — from £18 in January up to £30 in March — you can see just how much the economics of the funnel have shifted against us.

Click-Through Rates Are Telling the Real Story

The unique click-through rate has fallen from 2.44% down to 1.3%. That's a halving of engagement, and it's a direct signal that the ads themselves are no longer resonating with the audience they're being shown to.

Interestingly, the cost per landing page view hasn't changed dramatically — meaning people are still arriving at the page. The problem is upstream: the ads aren't compelling enough to generate quality clicks at scale.

What Facebook's Ad Auction Is Telling Us

This is something I've covered before, but it's worth revisiting. Facebook rewards advertisers who produce high-quality, engaging ads by showing those ads to better audiences at lower costs. The reverse is also true.

When your ads go stale and engagement drops, Facebook interprets that as low quality and starts serving those ads to a lower-value audience. Lower quality audience means lower conversion rates, higher cost per purchase, and a cycle that's hard to break without fresh creative.

The Organic Silver Lining

It's not all bad news. When I compared the same weekly windows for organic traffic, the YouTube strategy is clearly working. We've gone from roughly 242 sessions in January to 441 in March — almost double — and the number of YouTube-generated opt-ins has also nearly doubled.

We won't know until the end of the month whether those leads are converting into actual sales, but the directional data is encouraging. The organic work we've put in is starting to pay off.

Performance Snapshot

Recent two-day totals: £514 and £734 in sales vs £979 in combined ad spend — approximately £200 profit across both days.

Purchases (week): 92 in March vs 156 in January.
Cost per purchase: £30 in March vs £18 in January.
Unique CTR: 1.3% in March vs 2.44% in January.
YouTube traffic: 441 sessions vs 242 in January.
Today's running total at 10am: £218.

What We're Doing Next

The page conversion appears to be holding up reasonably well — the issue is clearly at the ad level. Fresh creative is the priority. The plan is to get new ads built and launched by Friday, then run a focused week of testing and optimisation through next week.

This is a reminder — to me as much as anyone — that consistent attention to your paid traffic is non-negotiable. A month of drifting has cost us in a very measurable way, and now we need to put in the work to claw it back.

Closing Reflection

There's real value in doing these comparative analyses rather than just looking at recent performance in isolation. Seeing January versus March side by side makes the scale of the problem impossible to ignore — and that's a good thing, because it forces action.

The journey to £240K is rarely linear, and days like this are part of the process. What matters is that we spot the issue, understand the cause, and make the right moves quickly. I'll have a full plan of action update tomorrow.

Resources & Next Steps

Free Top 10 Split-Tests: https://www.jonathanhowkins.com/split-testing

Join the Facebook community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/coursecreatorads

Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@jonathanhowkins-coursecreator?sub_confirmation=1