Day 145: Ad Stability, Creative Spread, and the AOV Challenge

Yesterday delivered one of the stronger days recently, finishing at 977 in revenue.

Any day that pushes close to the 1,000 mark is significant because it brings the funnel back toward that target of roughly 2x return on ad spend.

With ad spend sitting around 590 dollars, profit landed at approximately 447 dollars. That’s the kind of day that keeps the engine healthy.

Today is tracking at 478 by late afternoon. It’s too early to call, but it leaves room for a decent close if evening performance holds up. The ad budget remains at the reduced level of 400 per day, and for now there’s no intention to change that.

Stability is more valuable than aggressive scaling at this stage.

Creative Performance Across Ads

One of the most encouraging signs from yesterday is that conversions are now spread across a wide mix of creatives. Sales came in from static images, short videos, and carousel ads rather than one single dominant asset.

That diversity matters. It suggests the account isn’t relying on one “hero ad” that could burn out. Instead, multiple entry points are doing their job, which reduces risk and helps manage frequency over time.

The budget is also being distributed more evenly, meaning the new creatives are properly integrated into the system.

This is exactly what the creative expansion was meant to achieve: give the algorithm more to work with and reduce fatigue risk.

The Average Order Value Issue

Despite the solid front-end day, average cart value is still lagging, sitting around 38 to 39 rather than the more comfortable 44–45 range seen previously. That drop is tied almost entirely to weak upsell performance.

The key point here is that this doesn’t appear to be a page design issue anymore.

The upsell page has had time to run, and the bigger factor seems to be audience quality and offer congruence rather than layout or structure.

Right now, fewer buyers are moving on to the upsell, which drags AOV down even when front-end sales are healthy.

The Structural Upsell Limitation

The underlying challenge is structural. The current upsell isn’t a natural “make this easier or faster” extension of the front-end purchase. Strong upsells often:

accelerate results
remove effort
provide extra support or implementation

This funnel instead offers additional courses, which can still sell, but they rely more on continued motivation than urgency or immediate transformation.

A more tightly aligned upsell would likely perform better, but building that properly would mean developing a new type of offer. With a new product already in development, the priority for now is to optimise what exists rather than redesign the entire offer ladder.

So the focus remains short- to mid-term performance rather than perfect long-term architecture.

Where Effort Is Shifting

Because the ads and front end are now relatively stable, the next meaningful leverage point is still backend revenue — the 60-day post-purchase sequence.

Once that automation is built, it:

runs without daily input
monetises existing customers
raises overall lifetime value

That’s why it’s now the main operational priority. Improving what happens after the sale can compensate for weaker upsell performance and lift overall ROI without needing more traffic.

Current Phase Summary

This stage is about holding the line while strengthening the foundations:

Ad budget stable, not scaling
Creative base diversified and performing
AOV under pressure due to upsell weakness

Backend automation about to become the main growth lever.

It’s a systems-building phase, not a flashy growth spike phase, but these are often the improvements that create more reliable long-term profit.

jonathanhowkins.com

I want to help Course Creators succeed in predictably and profitably generating more leads and sales using Facebook Advertising.