Day 125: Four-Month Review: Sales vs Profit

Day 125 – Four-Month Review: Sales vs Profit and Priorities for Month Five

Overview

Today I want to step back and look at the top-line numbers from the first four months of this 12-month journey to $240K.

The aim here is to get clarity on where things actually stand, before we move into the strategies and tactics for month five and beyond over the next few days.

Before getting into the bigger picture, it’s worth quickly covering what happened yesterday.

Yesterday’s Performance Snapshot

After the very high numbers earlier in the week, things came back to more normal levels yesterday.

We finished the day at $1,076 in sales.

On the ad spend side, although the budget had been set at £440, Facebook had previously overspent by around 20%.

Because of the way daily averages work, it then pulled spend back. Yesterday’s actual spend came in at £369, which is roughly $497.

That left us with a profit of $579 on the day.

Nothing dramatic, but a solid and healthy result, and one I’m very happy with.

Today itself has been fairly quiet so far, but the real focus for this post is pulling together the bigger-picture numbers.

The Big Picture: Targets vs Reality

I’ve put together a simple dashboard that gives me a month-by-month view of how things are tracking and how close we are to the overall goal.

The headline targets are:

  • Sales target: $240,000 over 12 months (starting September 2025)

  • Profit target: 50%, or $120,000, which works out at $10,000 per month

Looking at the first four months:

  • Sales to date: We are just over $15,000 ahead of target

  • Profit to date: $34,257

  • Profit target for this stage: $40,000

That means we’re currently $5,743 behind target on profit, despite being well ahead on sales.

This is exactly why I keep coming back to profit rather than revenue. Big sales numbers look great on the surface, but they don’t mean much if profit isn’t keeping pace.

Monthly Profit Trends

I’ve also broken down profit percentage by month, with 50% being the long-term goal.

The first month started reasonably, then profitability slipped further in the following months, which was worrying for a while. December, however, pulled things back in the right direction.

Seeing both sales and profit rise together in December is what really matters.

That trajectory feels far healthier and gives me a lot more confidence heading into January.

Sometimes I focus on raw dollar amounts, sometimes on percentages, and sometimes I just look at the charts.

Different views highlight different problems, and all of them help keep me grounded in reality.

The Three Metrics That Matter Most

At the core of everything I’m doing are three numbers:

  • CPA (Cost Per Acquisition): How much it costs to get a customer

  • AOV (Average Order Value): What they spend on the first purchase

  • LTV (Lifetime Value): What they spend over the next 30–60 days

Every decision I make on ads, funnels, or emails comes back to improving at least one of these.

CPA is driven mainly by ad performance and the front-end sales page.

AOV is influenced by pricing, order bumps, and upsells.

LTV is all about what happens after the first purchase.

What Went Wrong With Funnel Two

In November and December, I put a lot of effort into launching a second funnel.
The problem was simple but painful: I couldn’t get enough conversions to get it out of the learning phase.

In December it slipped into Learning Limited, which effectively killed its ability to scale. Ad costs stayed high, conversion rates stayed low, and CPA was far too expensive to ever make it profitable.

That said, there was a positive signal.

The average order value was strong, which tells me there is demand and promise in that funnel. It just isn’t dialled in yet.

I haven’t given up on it — it simply needs a proper reboot, which I’ll be starting in January.

Why December Still Worked Overall

One key improvement from November to December was CPA dropping from $41 to $33.

That happened because conversion rates improved and Facebook’s algorithm finally had enough data to consistently find buyers.

More sales meant more learning, and more learning meant better optimisation.

This is also why I’m being extremely cautious about touching anything in the current main campaign. When something is profitable and stable, unnecessary changes can do real damage.

Priorities for the Main Funnel in January

For the existing RIFS funnel, my focus in January is very clear:

1. Ad Creative
The campaign needs more creative urgently to support scale and manage frequency. That’s my top priority.

2. Backend Sales (30–60 Days)
Backend revenue was around $3,200 in December, but it could be significantly higher.


I know the offers are there — the problem is presentation, timing, and engagement.

Improving post-purchase experience and follow-up could have a huge impact without increasing ad spend.

I’ll still run refined split tests on the core offer, but that’s no longer the main lever.

Plans for Funnel Two

The second funnel is coming back in January with a clean slate.


Because it’s aimed at beginners, January should naturally help with momentum as people look to start learning something new.

The goal is to relaunch it properly, with better structure, better creative, and far tighter control over CPA.

Where Things Stand Today

As of around midday today, we’re sitting at $371 in sales, which is lower than recent days.


I’m not expecting a runaway day, and I’m fine with that. The focus right now is stability and preparation, not forcing numbers.

Over the next few days, I’ll move away from high-level reviews and start showing the actual tactics and changes I’m making to push things forward in January.

jonathanhowkins.com

I want to help Course Creators succeed in predictably and profitably generating more leads and sales using Facebook Advertising.