Day 104: Stabilising After Volatility and Letting the Funnels Settle

Today is Saturday the thirteenth of December. It is quarter to eleven in the morning. As it is the weekend, today is mainly about reviewing numbers.

There are no new tests running. There are no new videos being launched. After several loss-making days, the decision has been made to leave everything untouched.

The goal right now is to allow things to stabilise naturally over the next few days.

Yesterday’s Results

Yesterday’s total sales came in at seven hundred and seventy-seven dollars.

That is above the profit line. It is not yet where it needs to be. Ideally, daily revenue needs to be closer to one thousand dollars.

Ad spend yesterday was just over four hundred pounds. That equates to roughly five hundred and forty-two dollars.

Profit for the day was two hundred and thirty-five dollars. This equates to roughly a one point five return on ad spend. For every pound spent, one pound fifty is being returned.

The long-term target remains doubling ad spend. That means two pounds back for every pound spent.

Today’s Early Numbers

As of quarter to eleven this morning, sales are already at three hundred and eighty-five pounds.

This is showing early promise for the day. There is still a long way to go.

Primary Funnel Performance

The main RIFS funnel continues to take the majority of ad spend. This funnel has not had any major changes made to it recently.

Most of the spend is still going into an older carousel ad. Despite its simplicity, this carousel continues to generate the majority of sales.

There are only a small number of creatives running in this funnel. This is something that may need addressing in the future.

For now, it continues to perform reliably.

Second Funnel Status

The second funnel is still in the learning phase. This is a result of inconsistent sales over the past week.

Yesterday did show an uplift in reported conversions. Tracking accuracy remains an issue. iOS updates continue to affect Facebook’s reporting.

Actual sales figures must always be compared with backend platform data.

CPM Improvements

One encouraging sign is the CPM on the second funnel. Yesterday, CPM dropped to around ten pounds. Previously, it had been closer to eighteen pounds.

If CPM can remain at these lower levels, the funnel has a better chance of exiting the learning phase.

Lower CPMs increase the likelihood of sustained profitability.

Comparing the Two Funnels

The long-running funnel still has roughly half the CPM of the newer funnel. However, the gap has narrowed significantly.

Over the last fourteen days, CPM on the second funnel averaged around sixteen pounds.

Yesterday’s drop to ten pounds is a strong improvement.

Average Order Value Insights

Another positive sign from the second funnel is average order value.
Yesterday, average order value reached eighty-three dollars.

That is a strong result. If this can happen consistently, the second funnel can become a meaningful contributor.

However, it may still be a short-term spike. Looking at the full month, average order value sits around sixty-four dollars.

Despite this, the funnel has still been losing money overall. Monthly losses are roughly three hundred dollars so far.

Short-Term Performance View

Looking only at the last three days paints a different picture. Average order value over that period is eighty-nine dollars.

Sales total roughly seven hundred dollars. Ad spend over those three days is approximately three hundred and seventy-five dollars.

This represents a doubling of ad spend over that short period. It shows the funnel can work under the right conditions.

Volatility remains the biggest challenge.

Current Strategy

For now, no further changes will be made. Stability is the priority. The aim is to let the system settle and generate consistent profit for a few days.

Early next week, more creative may be added. New split tests will likely be considered. For now, patience is the strategy. That is all for today.

I will catch up again tomorrow.